When don’t we need a new extreme event attribution study?

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract The influence of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency and intensity extreme weather events is becoming increasingly well understood. Extreme event attribution studies now exist for hundreds over past few decades. However, there remain large heterogeneities in number across world different hazards, as limited capacity to conduct new studies. In this study, we suggest that more information draw from about recent events. This because, even though forcing continues increase, many share meteorological characteristics with previously attributed ones. Here, explore possibility using related other lines existing evidence such projections trend analysis create rapid, low-resource statements. To do this, discuss potential use cases results, including raising awareness risks, preparing adaptation measures attributing loss damage. Then considerations necessary fulfil these uses three studies, a heatwave UK, tropical storm Caribbean drought East Africa. conclude, highlight regions hazards which can be drawn without quantitative analysis, those it remains urgent. could aid prioritisation resources research into less understood hazards.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Climatic Change

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['0165-0009', '1573-1480']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03521-4